Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate claim they support unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."
